Which Kevin Rudd will the voters remember?

By ABC's Barrie Cassidy

Photo: Parts of the electorate at least are seeing Kevin Rudd once again as their idea of what a good leader should be. (ABC News: Nic MacBean)

Early polls suggest many voters are remembering Kevin Rudd at his best. The challenge for Tony Abbott is reminding them of his worst, writes Barrie Cassidy.

Kevin Rudd is about to go into battle for his place in history.

Having righted the wrong, as he would see it, of the Julia Gillard coup, he now wants the endorsement of a nation for a second time at a general election.

If he succeeds, it will be seen as the most remarkable comeback in Australian political history, surpassing Bob Menzies recovery in 1949 and easily beating in significance the revolving door reruns of Alfred Deakin and Andrew Fisher in the early chaotic days of federation.

But if he fails, he will be only the second Labor prime minister to be defeated at a federal election in more than 60 years. That's exclusive company.

Paul Keating was the other. He lost to John Howard in 1996. Gough Whitlam had been sacked as prime minister when the caretaker, Malcolm Fraser, beat him in 1975. Bob Hawke never lost and neither did Julia Gillard. And neither has Rudd, not yet anyway.

Whether Rudd wins or loses depends on where he has landed since resuming the leadership. And whether he can keep his feet.

Has he landed somewhere between 2006 and 2009 when his popularity was sky high? Or somewhere between the tardiness of late 2009 and the rapid fall from grace in 2010?

The early polls suggest that at least in the honeymoon stages, the landing point is closer to the former than the latter.

It's worth recalling the early years of Rudd when, believe it or not, he was underestimated by a sceptical press gallery but enthusiastically embraced by an electorate fed up with John Howard and quite excited by the whole Rudd phenomenon.

When he became leader in December 2006, he had an approval rating across the polls in the mid 60s, and he held it at that level for three years. It didn't matter whether he was leader of the opposition against Prime Minister Howard or prime minister up against Brendan Nelson and then Malcolm Turnbull, his ratings remained higher than Bob Hawke's at his peak.

The detailed polling suggested the electorate saw him as trustworthy, clever, hard working, decisive (yes, decisive), strong and visionary.

This was the Kevin Rudd who beat Howard and then in his first 100 days ratified Kyoto, apologised to Indigenous Australians and kept Australia out of recession during the global financial crisis.

Then Captain Chaos kicked in.

Stories started to emerge of indecision, and rude treatment of the most senior bureaucrats. He either abused or ignored many of his caucus colleagues. Few ministers were consulted about anything.

When damaging issues arose - like his links with the disgraced Brian Burke, or his attempt to delay the Anzac Day dawn service at Long Tan in Vietnam - he showed an alarming lack of candour.

There were reports of tantrums and heavy-handed treatment of those who reported on them.

And much worse, there was a policy shambles around the mining tax, climate change, and the insulation program.

Rudd told Laurie Oakes at a private briefing at Kirribilli House: "I have no doubt we are going to take an enormous hit in the polls. And you know what? We deserve it."

So that was "Captain Chaos", a far more troubling look than the latest moniker, "Kevin Kardashian".

So where is he now in the public's mind? 2006? 2007? 2008, 2009? 2010? Or is 2013 unique, in the sense that he is somebody else altogether?

To this point it is almost as if the three Gillard years have been erased from history, along with the worst of 2010, and parts of the electorate at least are seeing him once again as their idea of what a good leader should be.

The challenge for the Opposition is to bring back memories of the excesses, remind the electorate of the worst of times. But so far, apart from a few television advertisements, the effort has been lacklustre.

Tony Abbott is often described as the best leader of the opposition Australia has had, seeing off Rudd and then Gillard.

Now he has to see off Rudd again, otherwise it will be all for nothing. If he fails, he will leave behind little more than poor approval ratings, and join John Hewson as a leader who lost the unlosable election.

So the contest is underway, Abbott trying to win despite himself and Rudd trying to win to spite ... well, to spite those who lost the faith.

Barrie Cassidy is the presenter of ABC programs Insiders and Offsiders. View his full profile here.

More on Kevin Rudd:

• Peter Reith: Rudd's mission to become our most powerful PM
• Mungo MacCallum: Rudd is no Hawke, but business-union truce possible
• Annabel Crabb: The remarkable Rudd has a plan to stay
• Chris Uhlmann: Labor is sinking and the captains are to blame

Which Kevin Rudd will the voters remember? - The Drum (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)