Katharine Murphy, deputy political editor
guardian.co.uk, Friday 12 July 2013 15.31 AEST
Poll shows a 7-8% swing on two-party preferred basis to Labor in Queensland following Rudd's return as leader
Kevin Rudd in the Queen Street Mall in Brisbane: his return to the prime ministership has given Labor a bounce in his home state. Photograph: AAP Image/Dave Hunt
Kevin Rudd's return to the Labor leadership has delivered the government a significant bounce in Queensland – a state where the party needs to gain seats if it is to have any hope of winning this year's federal election.
A new ReachTel poll commissioned by Together Union in Queensland shows a positive swing of between 7-8% on a two-party preferred basis to Labor in Queensland following Rudd's return to the prime ministership.
That swing suggests Labor could pick up six seats in Queensland if the election was held now.
Labor's primary vote in the state is now 40.8%, according to ReachTel. The Liberal National Party is on 44.2%. On a statewide measure Bob Katter's KAP is polling 3.9% and Clive Palmer's PUP is 4.6%.
Polling indicates that the vote for minor parties in Queensland remains soft. Of the sample of voters who identify themselves as "leaning", 37% are minor party voters. Voting intentions for the two major parties are more fixed, with 90% of the sample indicating they have already made up their minds.
The new poll suggests the performance of Campbell Newman's LNP government is influencing the federal contest to some extent. Asked whether Newman is making people more or less likely to vote for Tony Abbott in the federal contest, 45.3% say less likely.
That group includes a high proportion of Labor voters. But over 15% of LNP voters are also suggesting Newman is a factor in their federal decision, and he's made them less likely to vote for Abbott. Newman is also a negative for the group in the sample currently considering voting for a minor party.
Labor is running aggressively federally on the theme that Abbott will adopt the budget cuts that Newman imposed in Queensland if he wins office federally.
Queensland is a vital state for Labor in this looming federal contest, with strategists hoping gains in Queensland can balance losses in states like New South Wales, where the Labor vote has been depressed by factors like the ICAC inquiry into state ALP figures, and union governance scandals.
Kevin Rudd bounce puts Labor on course to pick up six Queensland seats | World news | guardian.co.uk
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