Political protagonists and the pretend of certainty

By ABC's Annabel Crabb Updated August 17, 2011 09:09:19

Photo: In times of uncertainty, political protagonists attempt to compensate simply by sounding more certain. (AAP)

There's a lot of uncertainty about at the moment.

That's one of our problems.

The other problem is that - as a political system - we have absolutely no ability to deal with uncertainty sensibly. We don't allow leaders, any more, the entirely prudent "we'll see" option, even in times of genuine upheaval.

What a relief it was today to see, in the board minutes from the RBA, a genuine, quiet "dunno" about the precise effect the present global economic turmoil will have on the collection of anomalies we are pleased to describe as our domestic economy.

The RBA is going to wait and see.

But in Canberra, the air is blue with shouting. In times of uncertainty, political protagonists attempt to compensate simply by sounding more certain. Which usually means "louder".

In all the human geography encompassed by the great and complex questions of our time (How can we best help the planet while others continue to damage it? How do we plan a secure economic future in a globe whose balance of power is tipping so swiftly? What are the obligations we owe to a child, and how do we best honour them as our notions of family change?), it seems there is no home address for hesitation.

Instead, there's a deafening marketplace of stallholders, each flogging their own shrill merchandise: Gay marriage caused the London riots. Whyalla will be wiped from the map. Tony Abbott invites "sovereign risk" (by waffling about farmers). The Government invites "sovereign risk" (by taxing miners). The Coalition has a secret plan to reintroduce WorkChoices (because backbencher John Alexander whinged about weekend penalty rates at an electorate function).

Exactly one year ago, a brand-new Prime Minister, grappling with umpteen degrees of uncertainty concerning just about every area of her recently-rearranged Government, decided to supersize herself to certainty by issuing two blanket guarantees.

One was that her Government, if re-elected, would not enact a carbon tax.

The other, dressed up with all sorts of huffery and puffery about failure not being an option, all of which were rather humiliatingly revisited by the Opposition in Question Time today, was to return the budget to surplus in 2012/13.

Today she is twisting still on the hook of those optimistic calls.

Paul Kelly wrote a marvellous book about the 1980s, called The End Of Certainty.

What will the book about the 2000s be called?

The Pretend Of Certainty, perhaps?

Annabel Crabb is the ABC's chief online political writer

Political protagonists and the pretend of certainty - The Drum (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)