Coalition facing huge election defeat after horror weeks, latest poll shows

Staff and agencies Monday 17 August 2015

Fairfax-Ipsos poll puts Labor lead at 54%-46% on two-party-preferred basis, implying the loss of between 36 and 44 Coalition seats

New poll figures put Tony Abbott’s leadership under further pressure Photograph: Glenn Hunt/AAP

The Coalition faces a thumping election defeat with a swing of 7.5% against it, according to the latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll.

That would mean the loss of up to 36 Coalition seats – Labor needs just 21 to form a majority government.

The government trailed Labor 54% to 46% on a two-party-preferred basis, the poll taken from 13-15 August showed. And using the stated second preferences of respondents, rather than the allocation of preferences as they flowed in September 2013, the Coalition’s position worsened to 56%-44%, implying the loss of up to 44 seats.

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The government’s primary support has dipped to 38% – just two points above Labor’s 36%, with the Greens on 16%, according to the poll published by Fairfax Media. The Coalition won 46% of the primary vote at the last election.

The government has endured several nightmare weeks, embroiled in the expenses row that led to the resignation of Bronwyn Bishop as Speaker, engaging in open internal conflict over same-sex marriage and fending off claims of partisanship against the trade union royal commissioner, Dyson Heydon.

Tony Abbott’s disapproval rating slipped one point to 59% in the poll. With his approval rating at 35% that left him on a net rating of minus 24%.

The Labor leader, Bill Shorten, gained four points on his approval rating, taking it to 39%, but with 49% disapproving was still on a net rating of minus 10.

The poll found Malcolm Turnbull led as preferred Liberal leader and prime minister among all voters on 41%, ahead of Julie Bishop on 23% and Abbott on 15%. But among Coalition voters Abbott still led with 33%, with Turnbull on 25% and Bishop on 23%. Just 6% of Coalition voters wanted the treasurer, Joe Hockey, as leader.

The poll of 1,402 respondents also showed public support for marriage equality remained high at 69%.

Coalition facing huge election defeat after horror weeks, latest poll shows | Australia news | The Guardian