Rabu, 22 Juli 2015

A weakened political opponent is better than a fallen one

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By ABC's Marius Benson Tuesday 21 July 2015

Opposition leader Bill Shorten (right) liaises with Speaker Bronwyn Bishop during Question Time Photo: Both Bronwyn Bishop and Bill Shorten are being targeted for destruction by their opponents. (AAP: Lukas Coch)

Labor is gunning for Bronwyn Bishop and the Coalition is targeting Bill Shorten, but the truth is both parties will be better served if their teetering targets limp on rather than fall, writes Marius Benson.

The Government and Opposition are now engaged in energetic political demolition jobs - and both would be well served if their teetering targets survive rather than fall.

Labor's target is Bronwyn Bishop and her preferred travel options. They have tried referring them to the police and have called for her resignation as Speaker as they try to ride a wave of public outrage.

The outrage is fading, though slowly, but when Parliament resumes in three weeks, Labor can be expected to try to revive it with a no-confidence motion in the Speaker. None of that will do the Government any good. Bishop is now firmly identified as the embodiment of the politician in the trough, regally backstroking her way through the privileges provided by the taxpayer. And when busted for what has been seen universally as a rort, she refused to apologise, and refused to say it was the wrong thing.

Bishop is a unique figure in politics. She seems to have been helicoptered in from another, earlier age, and sees it as her duty to lecture those of the 21st century on proper behaviour. Her default setting is to speak to journalists and others as a headmistress would address a wayward junior school student. When that high-handed manner is combined with being caught out, the howls of derision are deafening, the schadenfreude palpable.

Tony Abbot is standing by her. As long as he does she will survive as Speaker and Labor should be delighted that she does. Politics is such a combat sport that the destruction of an immediate target takes priority over any other consideration. But Bishop surviving in her present position, twisting in the wind as she dangles from a chopper, is a much better result for Labor than her removal as Speaker, which would end the issue.

On the other side, the Government is doing its best to destroy Bill Shorten's leadership, pursuing him through Parliament, the unions royal commission and in the wider world - and a very good job they've been doing, although most of the credit for diminishing Shorten goes to the man himself. Abbott and the Government generally should acknowledge that Shorten is their greatest asset.

The polls show that the battle between the PM and the Opposition Leader is a fight between electoral minnows. The only way for Abbott to appear to have any stature is for him to stand next to his opposite number. Newspoll has Abbott's standing at a rarely matched and entirely subterranean minus 27 per cent. The only person he can look down on at that depth is Mr Minus 32, Bill Shorten. The more voters see of the Opposition Leader, the less they think of him, and he stands now as the Government's best chance of overcoming the strong lead Labor holds in the party vote, ahead 53-47.

Both Abbott and Shorten are seen as vacuous careerists with little seriousness about policy. That is demonstrated by the current tax debate. In that discussion the Government approaches the table having already ruled out any change to superannuation tax breaks, which are universally condemned as too generous. Labor for its part rules out any change to the GST and is opposing the Government's changes to pensions - changes that do no more than reverse the politically driven giveaways of John Howard's last days.

The voice identified as having real policy substance in that tax debate is that of the vastly popular Liberal Premier of NSW, Mike Baird. He is now the chief salesman for raising the GST - and Labor says in doing that he's acting for the PM. Maybe, but it's important to be clear on what Baird is saying. He wants the GST increased not just to allow tax cuts elsewhere, he wants an overall increase in tax to meet rising demand for government services, particularly in health. That contradicts the standard Government line that they will deliver tax that is "simpler, fairer and lower".

Lower tax is always the promise of the Coalition, although they never do it. Malcolm Fraser didn't lower tax, nor did John Howard, nor has Abbott. But "lower tax" remains one of the most totemic Coalition beliefs. It's like "equality/equity" with Labor, a belief that has gone hand-in-hand with a widening wealth gap through Labor years.

The latest round of tax talks begins with territory, state and federal heads gathering for a leaders' retreat, but the expectation is that it will be characterised more by retreating than leading. It's hard to see it producing concrete results and providing more than a minor suspension of the usual political Punch and Judy show.

Marius Benson can be heard covering federal politics on ABC NewsRadio Breakfast each weekday morning.

A weakened political opponent is better than a fallen one - The Drum (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)


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