Political judgment on the line in election call

By ABC's Barrie Cassidy

Photo: In 2010 Prime Minister Kevin Rudd missed the moment to call an election. Will he get it right this time? (ABC News)

When Kevin Rudd last had a chance to run for re-election, he missed the boat. Will he exercise better judgment this time around, asks Barrie Cassidy.

In the week before Christmas 2009, those closest to Kevin Rudd thought the Prime Minister had not only lost some of his popularity, but his mojo as well, and only an early election would get it back.

Rudd had just returned from the Copenhagen climate change summit empty handed and saddled with a domestic policy that would hit Australians hard but contribute little to a global effort.

It was against that background that Rudd walked into a critical strategy meeting in the Cabinet room at the Commonwealth offices in Phillip Street, Sydney. Those present included Rudd's key staff, the Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard, the Treasurer Wayne Swan, and two hardheads from the NSW Right, Mark Arbib and Karl Bitar.

All of them urged Rudd to take a short Christmas break and then return to work and call an election in early February.

Bitar, then the ALP national secretary, drew on research to warn of an escalating climate change problem through 2010.

There were passing references to how Rudd's overseas travel had been a negative, and that the standoff involving asylum seekers aboard the Oceanic Viking had revived a troublesome issue. But other than that, nobody doubted the government would win an early election against an untried and untested Tony Abbott.

Those at the meeting that day left satisfied that Rudd had listened, and once he returned from a holiday in Tasmania, he would call an election for the second week in February.

Acting on this, Bitar took just one week's leave at Christmas. Some of his staff took just three days. In fact, Bitar was instructed to book television space for advertisements.

To the astonishment of his colleagues, when Rudd did return to work in January 2010, he used his first day back to launch a children’s book.

But to the astonishment of his colleagues, when Rudd did return to work in January, he used his first day back to launch a children's book, Jasper and Abby and the Great Australia Day Kerfuffle. There on the nightly news was the Prime Minister with the co-author Rhys Muldoon at Melbourne's children's hospital "encouraging the little ones to read".

Then Rudd set off around the country on a series of Australia Day speeches, in part talking of a population of 36 million by 2050 and embracing the concept of "a big Australia".

Suddenly, immigration and asylum seekers converged as an issue.

And slowly, Bitar started cancelling the advertising spots until they all disappeared.

Rudd missed the boat. And six months later, he lost the leadership. He never did get the chance to go for re-election, not until now that is.

The story is a sober reminder of his occasional lack of judgment, his unwillingness to listen to advice, and his propensity to tell very few people of what is on his mind.

So second guessing when the election will be is fraught with danger; just check the News Ltd newspapers which between them confidently predict August 31, September 21 "or October-November".

But one thing is certain: If Rudd does not go and see the Governor General this weekend, there will be plenty of people willing to say afterwards that he should have done so.

The essential work, post-Gillard, is done. The leadership is refreshed, party reform underway, the intervention in NSW announced, the carbon tax set to be abolished, and the asylum seekers issue in better shape than it was.

Any time now wasted outside a formal campaign can only erode the initial burst of support built on the departure of Gillard and the emergence of an alternative to Tony Abbott.

The asylum seekers initiative was clever politics; cleverer still if it had neutralised the issue and then killed it off. But it didn't. Instead, the subject has dominated the media for a week and it shows no sign of going away. While that is the case, the government, the body that has ultimate responsibility, will lose skin.

The only way to change the subject is to call an election and spread the conversation around.

It is often argued that a campaign simply elevates the opposition leader to equal leadership status. But that doesn't apply this time around. Because of the white hot nature of politics, Abbott has enjoyed equal status for three years.

It would be better for Rudd to move on now and engage Abbott directly on the big issues.

The task for the ALP is to improve, however narrowly, its primary vote and make some further progress in key marginal seats along the eastern seaboard. That is best done in a campaign. And Rudd, as an accomplished campaigner, can back himself to achieve that.

If he goes this weekend, and wins on August 31, he will be a Labor saviour, finally vindicated.

If he goes this weekend and loses, he can argue with some justification that picking up after Gillard proved to be too hard and too late.

But if he doesn't, if he leaves it very much longer, then his own judgment will be a significant factor in any loss.

Barrie Cassidy is the presenter of ABC programs Insiders and Offsiders. View his full profile here.

Political judgment on the line in election call - The Drum (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)