Rudd to blame for Labor disaster, says Gillard poll review

 

Mark Kenny Chief political correspondent

June 24, 2013

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Kevin Rudd's three-stage siege on the Labor leadership has cost the party direct political support and could destroy it for a generation according to a Gillard camp review of opinion polls before and after his two previous leadership tilts.

The figures ... show Labor's standing with voters has headed south.

Its release represents a new stage in the internecine warfare between the current and former prime ministers as Labor MPs stare electoral annihilation in the face.

The constant shadow cast by Kevin Rudd over the Labor leadership could cost the ALP the election. Photo: Getty Images

As Ms Gillard braces for her toughest week as Prime Minister with a final bruising showdown widely expected, a senior minister has told Fairfax Media that the only certain effect of Mr Rudd's "revenge mission" has been to send the ALP's stocks into the basement, guaranteeing that Tony Abbott will be prime minister after the election.

The figures, based on the results of the monthly Fairfax-Nielsen poll, the fortnightly Newspoll, and others, show Labor's standing with voters has headed south immediately following the last two raids on the top job by Mr Rudd and his backers.

It shows Labor trailed by just four points with 48 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote to the Coalition's 52 per cent in Newspoll's March 10 survey.

Smiling all the way to the polls: Tony Abbott is the only winner in the Labor debacle.

However, this gap quadrupled to 16 percentage points in the Newspoll taken just after the March 21 leadership crisis in which Mr Rudd forced a spill, but then failed to stand.

In the corresponding Fairfax-Nielsen poll, Labor's deficit blew out from eight points to 14 points across the two polls taken before and after the March 2013 no-show.

In February last year, Labor's poll deficit also more than doubled from six points before the ballot - which Ms Gillard won easily by almost two to one - to 14 points in the month after the contest, according to the Fairfax-Nielsen poll.

Illustration:Rocco Fazzari

And on Monday, a Newspoll showed Labor's primary vote at 29 per cent with the Coalition on 48 per cent.

On a two-party preferred basis, Labor's one percentage point gain to 43 per cent still remains far behind the Coalition on 57 per cent.

The poll also shows Opposition Leader Tony Abbott leads Ms Gillard by 12 percentage points as preferred prime minister, 45 to 33 per cent.

The Gillard camp assessment of the impact of the leadership tensions reveals it wants to leave no doubt as to who is to blame for the destabilisation, as the gloves come off before the final sitting week of Parliament.

What the poll assessment does not factor in, though, is the negative impact of a series of political blunders and tactical errors by Labor which have rocked the confidence of MPs in Ms Gillard's political judgment and brought the government into disrepute.

Labor is now all but consumed by its own troubles. The Gillard camp, which at this stage includes the entire ministry, maintains that it is up to Mr Rudd to make a move if he has the numbers.

But the release of the poll assessment is evidence of the wider battle within the ALP parliamentary party for the hearts and minds of MPs terrified of losing their seats, and of their party being consigned to opposition for several parliamentary terms over a personal rivalry they have no way of controlling.

Neither side seems to know if the stand-off will lead to another leadership ballot this week amid concerns over the constitutional complications of Labor not commanding a parliamentary majority in its own right, and the attitudes of crossbench MPs.

But hostilities will need to be put on hold on Tuesday afternoon anyway as the antagonists attend the Hazel Hawke memorial in Sydney.

Rudd to blame for Labor disaster, says Gillard poll review

Rudd push out of puff, Gillard going nowhere

 

Mark Kenny Chief political correspondent

June 25, 2013

Gillard appears safe in leadership battle

Prime Minister Julia Gillard looks set to avoid a major hurdle to her leadership on Tuesday.

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A third push to reinstall Kevin Rudd as Labor leader was in disarray on Monday evening as it emerged its singular strategy of forcing pro-Gillard ministers to take the initiative and ''tap'' the Prime Minister on the shoulder had come to nothing.

With no plan B, it now looks increasingly likely there will be no change of leader as time for a final showdown runs out.

In disarray: Kevin Rudd's leadership challenge. Photo: Andrew Meares

Instead, pressure is intensifying on the former prime minister to back up his camp's faux campaign with a formal challenge as frustrated MPs on both sides of the stand-off come to the realisation that Julia Gillard will not give in.

Mr Rudd was not present when Labor caucus met on Tuesday morning as he travelled to Sydney to attend the memorial for Hazel Hawke from 1.30pm. Any ballot this week is also thrown into doubt as the former prime minister is travelling to China on Thursday to attend a conference.

Ms Gillard, who will also attend the Hazel Hawke memorial, offered Mr Rudd a lift in her VIP jet, but he declined, with his office explaining he had already made travel arrangements.

Absolutely confident of her causcus majority: Prime Minister Julia Gillard. Photo: Andrew Meares

As the destructive stalemate enters its presumed end-game in the last days of the 43rd Parliament, an uneasy consensus is emerging that it will be up to Mr Rudd to force a spill through demonstrating overwhelming support in the 102-member caucus.

But with the cabinet and her backbench holding firm, Ms Gillard is standing her ground.

The Rudd camp, which continues to say its man must be drafted, is uncertain of its next move, unable even to say if he would nominate in a ballot, or do as he did in March and sit on his hands.

Time for resolution: Climate Change Minister Greg Combet. Photo: Kate Geraghty

Ms Gillard affirmed on Monday that she was ''absolutely'' confident of her caucus majority, insisting the leadership question had been dealt with in March.

But others acting on her behalf taunted Mr Rudd to end the destabilisation by either launching a formal challenge or pulling back.

Climate Change Minister Greg Combet said the leadership needed to be settled this week. ''We certainly can't have this go on,'' he told Radio National. ''It's just got to be resolved. Kevin Rudd has to decide whether he's a candidate or not and then do something about it. The ball's in Kevin Rudd's court.''

According to a caucus spokesman, leadership was not discussed at the last scheduled caucus meeting before the election.

Instead, Ms Gillard told MPs on Tuesday morning that the September election would feature a choice between ''investment in the future'' and ''cuts to the bone''.

The Prime Minister also said that when Parliament rose at the end of the week, Labor would be running with three issues: education reforms, DisabilityCare and the NBN roll out.

Earlier on Tuesday, Labor senator and Rudd backer Mark Bishop said that Labor should be led by the person who gave it the best chance of winning the election.

But he would not be drawn on whether that should be Ms Gillard or Mr Rudd.

''I'm not going to address those sorts of issues now. We have a leader. We’ve had a set of words for 12 months. And Ms Gillard is our leader,'' he told Fairfax Media's Breaking Politics program.

Senator Bishop also hit out at cabinet ministers, such as Peter Garrett and Senator Stephen Conroy, who have recently restated they would quit their frontbench posts if Mr Rudd returned to the leadership.

''I've been somewhat disappointed by some of public commentary of my more senior colleagues in the last two or three days,'' he said, explaining that MPs should be more disciplined.

''You don't have the option where I come from of saying 'well, I like Jack, I don’t like Jill and I’ll only work under Jack'. So that's been a disappointing sideshow that cabinet ministers have engaged in.''

With the internal contest increasingly being fought on the airwaves, a Rudd supporter, NSW MP Stephen Jones, warned that the party faced a ''thumping'' and should hold a ballot this week.

The sense of desperation was added to by the latest national poll showing Labor's primary vote dipping below 30 per cent, and Ms Gillard's popularity losing more ground to Opposition Leader Tony Abbott.

Pro-Rudd forces continue to discuss the idea of a senior delegation of ministers calling on Ms Gillard to stand down ''for the good of the party'', but privately strategists admit they are out of ideas.

Rudd push out of puff, Gillard going nowhere

Consumed with Kickstarter

For the last 2 weeks I've been consumed with promoting my Kickstarter campaign for Muted. I knew it would be hard but WOW! This truly is a 24 hour job that requires a lot of reminding people without annoying people (or at least trying not to). We're hoping to raise at least $15,000 (just shy of $7,000 to date) and as with all Kickstarter projects if we don't reach our goal then we get nothing at all. Please take a moment to watch our pitch video and if it resonates with you then please make a pledge. The minimum amount is $1 and believe me when I say we are THRILLED when we see those $1 pledges come in because they add up quickly.

We've been shown some Twitter love from a few women who have retweeted our campaign including actress/director Regina King, actress Megan Good, Black Girls Rock creator Beverly Bond, comedienne Sommore, singer T-Boz of TLC and my "shero" herself Shonda Rhimes! We've also recently been covered by Clutch magazine: http://www.clutchmagonline.com/2013/06/new-film-explores-the-muted-voices-of-missing-children-of-color-2/.

I have some other things to share with you, including a new blog feature that I'm excited about, but first I've gotta make it to the 30th and see this Kickstarter campaign through to the end.

Muted Kickstarter
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Kerry love.

Love her and her show!

If you can't see the embedded video above, click here: http://youtu.be/uJxQB8uyAHU.

Switch to Rudd would boost chances, but figures are slippery

 

Mark Kenny Chief political correspondent

June 17, 2013

Gillard's poll woes

Another disastrous opinion poll for Labor and Julia Gillard - but not for Kevin Rudd - places more pressure on her leadership.

Returning to Kevin Rudd could forestall an electoral train wreck by adding as much as 11 points to Labor's primary vote, the latest Fairfax Nielsen poll has found.

The poll shows the ALP's first-preference vote languishing at just 29 per cent to the Coalition's 47 per cent, portending a 7 per cent swing against Labor and the loss of nearly half its MPs. Dejected caucus members filing back into the capital will notice that according to the poll, under Mr Rudd's leadership their 29 per cent share could suddenly become 40 and the Coalition's 47 per cent could be pulled back to 42.

That would take the race back to the nil-all draw achieved at the 2010 election after distribution of preferences to be 50-50.

Switching to Kevin Rudd could keep Labor in the election race. Photo: Harrison Saragossi

Some of the recovery would come from Greens voters but most would be from a group disaffected by the present leader: male voters - all age groups.

However, pollster John Stirton reminds readers of hypothetical head-to-head comparisons, such as that between Ms Gillard and Mr Rudd, not to overlook how the change would occur and how resilient the latter's apparent popularity turns out to be.

Mr Rudd is the preferred Labor leader, with 58 per cent to Ms Gillard's 32 per cent - a very significant lead of 26 points.

The question is, how much of that comprises conservative voters who have no intention of voting Labor when the time comes?

The former prime minister's popularity is also likely to be inflated by nostalgia and the simple fact of him not being her.

This is the ''ABG'' answer, where voters opt for ''anyone but Gillard'' without spending time thinking about what happens next. Ms Gillard's loyalists argue that Mr Rudd's support in the electorate is ''a mile wide and an inch deep'', being based more on celebrity than durable political popularity.

Mr Stirton has also described as ''a magical scenario'' the possibility of Mr Rudd acquiring the leadership seamlessly, leading a united party, and of his ''honeymoon'' lasting all the way to polling day.

Switch to Rudd would boost chances, but figures are slippery

Coalition announces plans to deport foreigners convicted of serious crimes

 

The Coalition says asylum seekers who commit serious crimes should be deported without having access to the right of appeal.

Foreigners who commit crimes in Australia can already have their visa cancelled if they are sentenced to more than a year in prison.

However, the Coalition argues foreign criminals have been exploiting the appeals process.

Shadow attorney-general George Brandis says the lengthy appeals process should be ditched except in exceptional circumstances.

"There is a very direct link between the security of our borders and the safety of our streets," Senator Brandis told Channel Ten.

The Coalition says the changes would apply to all foreigners, including asylum seekers who are released into the community while they wait for their refugee applications to be considered.

Deputy Coalition leader Julie Bishop says the party would not violate international law, but it intends to send asylum seekers convicted of criminal offences back to the countries they have fled from.

"Australians deserve to be protected from people who come here and then commit crimes punishable by more than 12 months and then we would see to turn them back," she said.

"Now obviously there will be circumstances where countries won't take them back and I understand that."

The policy announcement comes after Egyptian asylum seeker Sayed Abdel Latif was found to have been living in community detention in Australia, despite the issuing of an Interpol "red notice" showing he had been convicted of murder and terror-related offences.

On Friday, murder and weapons convictions against Mr Abdel Latif were dropped by the international crime body at the request of Egyptian authorities.

Convictions of belonging to an illegally-formed extremist organisation and travel document forgery remain on his red notice.

Mr Abdel Latif, his wife and children remain in immigration detention.

Coalition announces plans to deport foreigners convicted of serious crimes - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Australia, let's talk about manners

 

Ben Pobjie guardian.co.uk, Friday 14 June 2013 09.19 AEST

Are we satisfied with a sexist political debate that revolves around sniggering at women's body parts and hairdressers?

Julia Gillard asked if her partner is gay by radio host Howard Sattler. Photograph: 6PR

Really, Australia? Is this the way it’s going to be? This is how we’re going to play it?

The political discourse in this country, having been sputtering for some time, finally went into its unstoppable death spin this week, trailing a plume of black smoke and echoing with the screams of the terrified and slightly bored voters trapped inside.

We started out with a surrealist moment when everyone suddenly started talking about blue ties for no readily apparent reason. We then were subjected to the affair of the menu, in which we learnt just what classy, sophisticated affairs Liberal Party fundraisers are.

We might have thought that that was going to be the nadir of this teeth-grindingly tacky week, but then West Australian talk radio host and alleged adult Howard Sattler demonstrated that our concepts of “bottom of the barrel” were wildly optimistic. Asking Julia Gillard if her boyfriend was gay, and then asking again, and then quite hilariously saying, “it’s not me saying it”, Howard took the concept of “journalism”, turned it inside out, and wore it like a particularly stupid hat.

And so I ask again, really? It’s not like Sattler is just some guy who randomly broke into a studio: he’s a professional announcer following the same template for radio stardom that Alan Jones, Chris Smith, Ray Hadley, Steve Price and others have patented.

Is this what we’re going to have to put up with? A political debate that revolves around sniggering at women’s body parts and smirks about gay hairdressers?

People will protest that Sattler wasn’t being sexist, because every time someone is sexist in public people protest that they weren’t being sexist. You could ask these people to reel off the number of times that previous prime ministers were asked if their wives were lesbians: in fact you could ask them to specify those occasions on which previous prime ministers were quizzed on any aspect of their wives’ sex lives at all; but they’d be unlikely to take the point, because they are not very bright.

But I understand the urge to deny that sexism is happening, because I’m a man and I hate talking about sexism: it makes me feel guilty and self-conscious. It is, frankly, awkward.

But that’s OK: let’s not talk about sexism. Let’s talk about manners. Let’s talk about the way you talk to another human being. In this case, as it so happened, the other human being was the prime minister of Australia, who you had invited onto your radio show for a serious interview. But even leaving all that aside, let us consider, when you are having a conversation with somebody, how do you talk to them?

You don’t talk to them the way Sattler talked to Gillard, unless you want to be quite explicit about the fact that you are a rude, ill-mannered, nasty little boor. And that’s the sexism, right there: the belief that the opposite sex is so far beneath you that you don’t even have to worry about whether you’re rude to them or not.

So, really? Having reassured ourselves that we’re justified in “holding them to account” and “having robust debates” and “speaking truth to power”, we’re now just flat-out rude to their faces? When our leaders face us, do we want to grill them over what they’re doing right and what they’re doing wrong, or do we want to have a giggle about their genitalia and their boyfriend’s sexuality?

Look Australia, it’s your decision, but you should know: right now, you’re an embarrassment.

Australia, let's talk about manners | Ben Pobjie | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk