What the polls do (and don't) say about Abbott

By ABC's Barrie Cassidy 27 March 2015

Photo: No one will thank Tony Abbott if the NSW Coalition has a comfortable win this weekend, but all will blame him if they don't. (AAP: Lukas Coch)

The Coalition has closed gap on Labor in the latest Newspoll, but only once the NSW election and the May budget have passed will Tony Abbott's future be clear, writes Barrie Cassidy.

Labor frontbencher Mark Butler told journalists this week that opinion polls "are put in there solely for your amusement".

So with that in mind:

Imagine, in some hypothetical world driven by the polls, that a federal election had been held last weekend. What would the result have been?

Insiders' analyst, Andrew Catsaras, averaged out all the major polling and found the Coalition would have lost 6.2 per cent of its primary vote and suffered a 6.5 per cent two party swing

That would have cost the Abbott Government 29 seats, meaning in the new parliament the ALP would have 84 seats, the Coalition 62, independents three and the Greens one.

In this hypothetical situation, the Coalition simply ran out of time. Not once since the election had they gone ahead of their 2013 election vote, and in fact they trailed the ALP for 15 consecutive months by an average of six points (53 per cent to 47 per cent.)

That broader trend does put in perspective the most recent Newspoll that has the Coalition making significant gains to just trail the ALP by 49 per cent to 51 per cent. That was one in a series that increasingly turns up volatility between various polling organisations and indeed within the same organisations.

Catsaras told me the improvement from 45 per cent two party preferred to 49 per cent was unrealistic given the absence of a single identifiable and significant event. In those circumstances, he argues, further evidence of a shift is needed, and that was not there in either the Essential or Morgan polls which both had the Coalition at 46 per cent.

However, even a straw in the wind was welcome news to the Coalition in need of a confidence boost. And it does show that the electorate is still open to persuasion and comebacks are possible.

And that's what makes the Government's shift on fiscal and budget strategy so intriguing. Tony Abbott's declaration that the heavy lifting had been done and the May budget would be dull and routine alarmed economists and business groups. But it was welcomed by many on the backbench skittish about political alienation after the 2014 budget and fearful of more cuts to come.

Was the last Newspoll evidence that the public too welcomed the shift? As much as they recognised the inconsistency in the rhetoric - in fact the sheer brazen nature of it - they nevertheless like where the Prime Minister has finally landed?

Only the budget itself, the reaction to it from all stakeholders, and a new set of polls throwing up new trend lines, will properly answer those questions.

And only then will Abbott's future be clearer.

And in the meantime, the only poll that counts - this week anyway - will be the NSW state election poll.

Abbott is on a hiding to nothing. Already, and overwhelmingly, commentators are saying that if the Government limits the seat losses to 15 or less, that will be a tribute to the premier Mike Baird's personal popularity. On the other hand, if the losses are 20 seats or more, then Abbott will be pilloried.

In other words - no thanks to Abbott if the Coalition has a reasonably comfortable win; all blame to him if they don't.

Still given recent results in South Australia, Victoria, and most spectacularly, Queensland, that's to be expected. There has been a steady deterioration in the Coalition vote around the country and Abbott's unpopularity is the common thread.

The best then that he can hope for on Saturday is some relative easing of the pressure in the run up to the critical May budget.

That, and perhaps more words of encouragement like these from Malcolm Turnbull this week:

"Tony Abbott is safe, he's the Prime Minister. He is safe in the bosom of the party that supports him with 100 per cent loyalty."

Until they don't.

Barrie Cassidy is the presenter of the ABC program Insiders. He writes a weekly column for The Drum.

What the polls do (and don't) say about Abbott - The Drum (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)