By ABC's Barrie Cassidy
Photo: It's not often that an equal number of seats on either side of the ledger are genuinely in play.
Six weeks ago it seemed certain that the federal election would deliver a resounding Labor defeat. With a date set at last, the latest polling suggests the next five weeks will now offer a tight and absorbing contest, writes Barrie Cassidy.
A chance to steady the ship
After three tumultuous years in politics and a rare and unwelcomed experiment with minority government, the country now gets a chance to try and steady the ship of state.
Six weeks ago, it seemed voters had well and truly made up their minds about how to do that: throw out the Gillard government, and comprehensively.
But now it's a choice between Tony Abbott's opposition and what presents itself as a 'new' government, led by Kevin Rudd. Or is it an old government restored?
Either way, as a result of the leadership change, the country now faces a tight, absorbing contest, close enough so that campaign performances, policies and ultimately credibility will determine the result.
The most audacious first shot in any recent election campaign was John Howard's declaration in 2004 that "this election, ladies and gentlemen, will be about trust".
It initially staggered political commentators because Howard – like President George W Bush in America – had that year partly justified a war in Iraq with false claims that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction.
Howard though was asking the public to trust him to keep the economy strong, protect living standards, keep interest rates low and fight international terrorism.
Mark Latham was his opponent and in truth, the message was more about reliability than honesty.
And it worked.
Now Kevin Rudd has done the nearest thing to that, calling an election just as the government confirms unemployment is rising, growth is in decline and the surplus has blown out; then asking the country to trust him on economic management.
"Who do you trust to lead them through difficult economic challenges," he asked. "Who do you trust to steer the economy through the great transition that lies ahead?"
Rudd is banking on the country recalling his part in steering the country through the global financial crisis.
Tony Abbott, by contrast, preferred a more Australian expression: "Who is the more fair dinkum? Who can you rely on to build a better future?"
And then he too turned orthodox politics on its head by drawing on his time in opposition to lay claim to government, a period when he said the Coalition – unlike the government – was stable, consistent and united.
It is clear now that when the government put out its economic statement, it knew full well there would be fresh fears in the community about the future. But Rudd’s strategy was to meet those fears head on.
The opposition will welcome a debate on those terms and the outcome to that debate will be crucial.
That debate will now be a willing one, and a different one, because of the new voices that have joined in; specifically Rudd and Bowen.
While the economic debate is still to be played out, leadership at least is settled. The polls now confirm that leadership alone was costing Labor as much as 8 or 9 per cent in the primary vote, again underlining how important leadership is in modern politics.
Same party, different leader, whole new ball game.
The fact that so many experienced ministers refused to serve, should have been a body blow to Rudd. But now it seems the more the ministers were turned over, the more it felt like a new government had been put in place. That suited many people just fine.
The overwhelming sense of change was reinforced as old policies and old approaches were ditched.
The carbon tax was the first to go. It had already softened as an issue because as it turned out, the reality of the tax was nowhere near as bad as the prospect. But the government decided nevertheless that the issue had to be neutralised. The cost has been some nasty revenue raising measures to make up for the carbon tax shortfall. The jury is still out on whether it was worth all the effort.
The asylum seekers initiative might falter over time but up until now it has been a political success, and achieved the seemingly impossible; drawing Rudd equal with Abbott on managing the issue.
Rudd then is in a position to take head-on the issues that until a month ago were the biggest irritants; and at the same time go hard on the positives like the NDIS, education reform and the NBN.
The Coalition's task is to remind people of Rudd's first coming, the home insulation debacle, the chaotic work practices and the corruption and constant infighting. "All talk and no action," will dominate early advertising.
Then – and this is the great unknown – senior shadow ministers need to get started on policy initiatives. A book of principles and clichés won't do it.
And when they have done that, the figures will need to add up.
There are now three plausible outcomes to this election; a Labor win; a Coalition win; or a hung parliament.
Some of the best judges in the Labor camp think a win is possible, but unlikely.
However, they believe that if Rudd can out campaign Abbott then it becomes desperately close.
Weeks ago, in the Coalition camp, confidence bordering on hubris gave way to a sense of anxiety of the kind not felt since Gillard first cobbled together minority government.
Crunching the numbers
Polling analyst, Andrew Catsaras, crunched the numbers from eight pollsters through July and found the ALP's primary vote was at 39.6 per cent, the LNP at 43.6 per cent and the Greens at 8.6 per cent, translating into a two party preferred vote of 50.2per cent for the LNP and 49.8 per cent for the ALP.
Applying the figures to the various states, he found that in the past month:
- In NSW, a swing of 0.6 per cent to the government, indicating no net changes to seats (that was before the ICAC findings were announced.)
- In Victoria, a swing against the government of 3.5 per cent pointing to a loss of three government seats.
- In Queensland, a swing to the government of 3.3 per cent, and a gain of six seats.
- In South Australia, a swing against the government of 1.7 per cent, but no net changes to seats.
- In Western Australia, a swing to the government of 1.4 per cent and a one seat gain.
- In Tasmania, a swing against the government of 7.8 per cent and a loss of two seats.
In total, that translated to a net gain for the ALP across the country of two seats, and a final tally: ALP 74, LNP 73, and 2 Independents (Bob Katter and Andrew Wilkie.)
Either the Greens or the ALP will pick up the final seat in Melbourne.
Pray that equation doesn't happen.
What it does suggest however, is that the first of the major parties to hit 51 per cent in the two party preferred vote will have a significant psychological, as well as a numerical advantage.
If the Coalition was to reach 51 per cent first, it would suggest the Rudd momentum has dangerously stalled. If Labor was to get there first, that would suggest his appeal is still growing.
The bottom line
The election will probably come down to a battle in about 20 seats around the country, split evenly between ALP and LNP-held seats.
The most dramatic change since Kevin Rudd resumed the leadership has happened in Queensland.
A month ago it appeared Labor would lose seven seats, Moreton (1.1 per cent), Petrie (2.5 per cent), Lilley (3.2 per cent), Capricornia (3.7 per cent), Blair (4.2 per cent), Rankin (5.4 per cent) and Oxley (5.8 per cent).
But Labor is now well-placed to hold all of them while realistically making strong claims for Coalition seats in Brisbane (1.1 per cent), Forde (1.6 per cent), Longman (1.9 per cent) and Bonner (2.8 per cent).
Herbert (2.2 per cent), Dawson (2.4 per cent) and Flynn (3.6 per cent) for various local reasons are harder for Labor to win but not entirely off the radar either.
Similarly, in NSW, the ALP was set to lose Greenway (0.9 per cent), Robertson (1.0 per cent), Lindsay (1.1 per cent), Banks (1.5 per cent), Dobell (5.1 per cent), Reid (2.7 per cent), Page 4.2 per cent) and Eden Monaro (4.2 per cent).
But now only Lindsay and Dobell are conceded, and the ALP will run aggressive campaigns in Liberal held seats, Macquarie (1.3 per cent) and Bennelong (3.1 per cent).
In Victoria, there could be a confusing crossover. On the one hand, Labor held seats, Corangamite (0.3 per cent), Deakin (0.6 per cent) and La Trobe (1.7 per cent) are all vulnerable, and yet the Coalition will have to throw considerable resources into Aston (0.7 per cent) and Dunkley (1.1 per cent) otherwise they will fall.
In South Australia, Labor is targeting Boothby (0.6 per cent), while at the same time sandbagging their own seat of Hindmarsh (6.1 per cent); in Western Australia, they are chasing Hasluck (0.6 per cent), and yet fighting to hold on to Brand (3.3 per cent); and in the Northern Territory, both seats are genuine contests, Lingiari (3.7 per cent), held by Labor and Solomon (1.8 per cent) held by the CLP.
On the face of it, Tasmania should be status quo, given that the seat most at risk for Labor is Bass out on 6.7 per cent.
But Tasmania has been bad for Labor for a long time and so far the leadership change has not resonated in that state.
So in summary, the government has to sandbag at least ten seats that it now holds and at the same time go out and aggressively chase ten Coalition held seats that until very recently seemed safe.
It's not often that an equal number of seats on either side of the ledger are genuinely in play.
Barry Cassidy is the presenter of ABC programs Insiders and Offsiders. View his full profile here.
Same party, different leader, whole new ball game - The Drum (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
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